A steep decline in the figure of study visas issued by the United Kingdom to Nigerians and other international students for the January 2024 intake has raised concerns about how British universities would grapple with declining admissions and revenues from foreign students, following the implementation of the dependant visa ban policy.
The latest data from Enroly Data Insights representing a cross-section of UK universities and based on 58,000 students, highlighted a substantial downturn in key metrics including deposit payments, and confirmation of acceptance for studies, among others for the January 2024 enrolment.
In contrast to January 2023 figures, deposit payments, a critical indicator, have plummeted ahead of the January 2024 enrolment by 52 per cent, Confirmation of Acceptance for Studies (CAS) issuance by 64 per cent, and visa issuance has seen even more drastic decline by 71 per cent.
The stark figures, the data said, are driven by a collapse in the Nigerian market, witnessing drops of 74 per cent in deposits and 76 per cent in CAS/visa issuance.
The data also indicated a significant decline in students from India, with deposits down by 52 per cent and CAS/visa issued down by 66 per cent.
The report also said the decline in enrolment to UK universities by Nigerians could also be linked to the sudden devaluation of the Naira, a factor which dramatically limits student mobility and access to foreign exchange.
In May 2023, international students on UK taught master’s courses were banned from bringing family members with them as dependants.
Only students on postgraduate courses currently designated as research programs, which includes PhD students, will be able to bring dependants under new rules.
The UK Home Office, under the recently dismissed Interior Secretary Suella Braverman, introduced this policy to take effect from January 2024.
Figures released earlier this year showed that the number of dependant visas granted to Nigerians had increased significantly year-on-year, meaning that there are now more Nigerian family members of students in the UK than students.
The number of main applicant visas granted to Nigerian students in 2022 was eight times greater than in 2021 – while the number of dependant visas increased by 38 times over the same period.
Enroly elaborates, “The falls are partly driven by a collapse in the Nigerian market, where deposits and CAS/visa issued are down by 74 per cent and 76 per cent respectively.
"There are indications there will also be large falls in students from the UK’s largest market, India, with deposits down 52 per cent and CAS/visa issued down by 66 per cent.”
Many Nigerian students are now increasingly opting for universities in Canada, Germany and Australia, which are perceived as more migrant-friendly to accommodate their dependants.
India and Nigeria have the second and third largest numbers of students in UK universities with many of them enrolling for the one-year master’s option.
In 2021/22, almost three-quarters (73 per cent) of Indian students in UK education were enrolled in one-year master’s courses.
Overall, six in ten of all international students in postgraduate programmes in the UK are from non-EU countries.
The proportion of non-EU students in undergraduate courses is also more than twice that of EU students.
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